owzj
Spectator
Posts: 42
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Post by owzj on Mar 12, 2020 19:29:19 GMT
Living in Poland, and the school's here have shut down from today, cinema's, uni's and Ekstraklasa is behind closed doors. Not many people have it, or at least officially but it seems like the government are trying to get ahead of it, since they don't have the resources to actually deal with it.
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Post by Maskya Yoshida on Mar 12, 2020 19:31:58 GMT
Response on all levels has just been fucking awful. This country doesn’t half to arrogant in the face of the threat of massive losses of life. Decent chance that some of us will lose at the very least one grandparent over the next few weeks or months and yet, here we all are, going into work every day. I work in a building with over 2500 people and come into contact with a decent 40-50 of them daily. It’s a farce. Just wash your hands for 20 seconds FFS. It's pretty simple
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Post by The Quito Diet on Mar 12, 2020 19:43:48 GMT
Catch it. Kill it. Bin it.
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allah
Starter
Posts: 4,141
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Post by allah on Mar 12, 2020 19:51:59 GMT
The idea is that no matter what the government do the majority of people WILL get this. And that essentially you only get so many silver bullets, people won't accept being quarantined for the next year so you only get that type of action every so often. And if exponential growth is gonna happen no matter what in terms of numbers you actually want to slow it down after it has progressed somewhat. If a number doubles every day and you have the ability to stop that growth for two weeks one time then doing it when the number is 10 is worse than doing it when the number is 10,000 because in the second one you prevent 1,000 times as many people getting it. This of course relies on you actually being able to effectively slow down transmission once that many people have it which means if you do it too late it's even worse. The problem is that long span when if looks like green is doing a great job containing it and blue looks like it massively fucked up which will be when people get VERY angry at the government. This also assumes that the scientists are right. Maybe they're not. Maybe if you contain it to start with you never get the exponential growth later on. Maybe they do it too late and we can't control the growth. Either way, looks like my 2 week vacation won't be for a while.
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Post by The Quito Diet on Mar 12, 2020 21:02:05 GMT
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ChappyHova
Talisman
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Member is Online
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Post by ChappyHova on Mar 12, 2020 21:07:56 GMT
Are you alright?
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notpropaganda
Key Player
Eden 'Azarrrrrrrr!
Posts: 8,470
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Post by notpropaganda on Mar 12, 2020 21:11:46 GMT
The idea is that no matter what the government do the majority of people WILL get this. And that essentially you only get so many silver bullets, people won't accept being quarantined for the next year so you only get that type of action every so often. And if exponential growth is gonna happen no matter what in terms of numbers you actually want to slow it down after it has progressed somewhat. If a number doubles every day and you have the ability to stop that growth for two weeks one time then doing it when the number is 10 is worse than doing it when the number is 10,000 because in the second one you prevent 1,000 times as many people getting it. This of course relies on you actually being able to effectively slow down transmission once that many people have it which means if you do it too late it's even worse. The problem is that long span when if looks like green is doing a great job containing it and blue looks like it massively fucked up which will be when people get VERY angry at the government. This also assumes that the scientists are right. Maybe they're not. Maybe if you contain it to start with you never get the exponential growth later on. Maybe they do it too late and we can't control the growth. Either way, looks like my 2 week vacation won't be for a while. yeah I understand the idea behind it, it just seems risky to me or at least a little cavalier maybe? I’ve read a lot about the data models being unreliable because you can’t just apply standard stat models to health situations where the variables are so high, but all of this is way over my head tbh I just hope everyone is alright except for the tories
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Olivier
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Post by Olivier on Mar 12, 2020 21:26:35 GMT
There is so far no evidence that once you've had COVID-19 that you become immune. It's not like chickenpox. Herd immunity require vaccines. That's why flu shots are offered every year. You vaccinate enough of the population that the virus hits dead-ends in it's propagation. You don't become immune because all your mates got it.
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Post by The Quito Diet on Mar 12, 2020 21:28:23 GMT
It does worry you when you see how the rest of Europe are reacting, hell the rest of the world, and yet so-far a Cummings led government is relying on a data approach.
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Olivier
Starter
Posts: 2,570
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Post by Olivier on Mar 12, 2020 21:34:40 GMT
The data being the pensions deficit.
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notpropaganda
Key Player
Eden 'Azarrrrrrrr!
Posts: 8,470
Likes: 5,697
Team: Republic of Ireland
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Post by notpropaganda on Mar 12, 2020 21:38:45 GMT
was supposed to be flying to Cheltenham tomorrow but with one of the lads getting married in 2 weeks and two with newborns we've decided to stay put will the wedding be able to go ahead with the ban on gatherings??
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Post by The Quito Diet on Mar 12, 2020 22:24:24 GMT
There is no way they make us play this weekend.
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Post by Gobble Gobble on Mar 12, 2020 22:27:05 GMT
That should be enough to postpone all football.
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allah
Starter
Posts: 4,141
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Post by allah on Mar 12, 2020 22:35:18 GMT
The idea is that no matter what the government do the majority of people WILL get this. And that essentially you only get so many silver bullets, people won't accept being quarantined for the next year so you only get that type of action every so often. And if exponential growth is gonna happen no matter what in terms of numbers you actually want to slow it down after it has progressed somewhat. If a number doubles every day and you have the ability to stop that growth for two weeks one time then doing it when the number is 10 is worse than doing it when the number is 10,000 because in the second one you prevent 1,000 times as many people getting it. This of course relies on you actually being able to effectively slow down transmission once that many people have it which means if you do it too late it's even worse. The problem is that long span when if looks like green is doing a great job containing it and blue looks like it massively fucked up which will be when people get VERY angry at the government. This also assumes that the scientists are right. Maybe they're not. Maybe if you contain it to start with you never get the exponential growth later on. Maybe they do it too late and we can't control the growth. Either way, looks like my 2 week vacation won't be for a while. yeah I understand the idea behind it, it just seems risky to me or at least a little cavalier maybe? I’ve read a lot about the data models being unreliable because you can’t just apply standard stat models to health situations where the variables are so high, but all of this is way over my head tbh I just hope everyone is alright except for the tories I mean I've literally no idea if it'll work, that's just the theory behind acting this way. BTW, Sky Sports News just described Arteta being confirmed positive a 'dramatic twist in the Coronavirus story' and I'm not sure if it's more insulting or hilarious that they've starting treating this like deadline day.
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Post by The Quito Diet on Mar 12, 2020 22:45:37 GMT
Talk that some clubs want the season voided. Surely it makes more sense to just postpone it for a year and come back and finish it off next year?
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